The alert shows when the trend calls attention.

CONTROLA ENGINE · 02/03

The observed value uses a solid line. The projection uses a dashed line, with an estimated time, threshold and evidence to help explain the change.

Projection guides follow-up. The closing confirms the fact.

View the five steps Return to the Controla Engine ↖ MARGIN · TODAY first predicted deviation 19:20 THRESHOLD 30% OBSERVED 30.1% at 18:00 PROJECTION 29.7% at closing THRESHOLD 30% CROSSING 19:20 GAP costs after 17:48 The alert uses the trend to signal risk before closing. 01 Indicators and metrics Period, formula and target together. 02 Alerts and deviations The alert separates fact from projection. 03 Sources and traceability Source and transformation traced.

FIVE STEPS

The alert uses the tendency to signal risk before closing.

01 · THE SIGN

The signal includes its period and freshness.

Reading records when it happened and which window supports the comparison.

The observed value enters with a known source and confirmed state. The margin reads 31.2% at 14:00, within a period that is still partial. Freshness shows whether the alert uses data that remains valid. 01 OBSERVED SIGNAL ACTIVE WINDOW EXPECTED RANGE COMPARES WITHIN THE SAME WINDOW SIGNAL STATUS 01 · THE SIGNAL

02 · TREND AND LIMIT

The trend is approaching the limit.

The recent rhythm forms a separate projection of the observed value.

The solid line stops at the last measured point; the dashed line continues. The estimated close is 29.7% against a stated target of 30%. At 16:00 the estimate reaches 30.1% and the state changes to attention. 02 threshold OBSERVED NOW PACE PROJECTION NAMED THRESHOLD CROSSES THE THRESHOLD 02 · TREND AND THRESHOLD

03 · CROSS-REFERENCING

When the observed crosses the limit, the deviation is recorded.

The severity rule states why the state changed from monitoring to attention or risk.

At 19:20 the observed value crosses the target, and the deviation becomes a confirmed fact. Each state brings the appropriate response: observe, review or forward. The critical state arrives when the deviation exceeds tolerance and increases the impact. 03 OBSERVED SERIES FIRST CROSSING WINDOW BEFORE 03 · THE CROSSING

04 · PROVIBLE CAUSE

The evidence points to probable cause.

Correlated changes appear alongside gaps. The cause remains identified as hypothesis.

A drop in order volume and changes in freight enter as observations. A sales event within the same period enters as context, rather than proof. Evidence stays attached, and the probable cause remains unconfirmed. 04 EVIDENCE A SOURCE A EVIDENCE B SOURCE B PROBABLE CAUSE IDENTIFIED 04 · PROBABLE CAUSE

05 · NEXT STEP

The alert includes a next step.

Planeja receives a new decision. Age receives an approved action. Controla continues monitoring.

The alert reaches the panel with a named next step. When the route must change, the step becomes a new decision. If the change is already authorized, the step becomes an action with an owner and deadline. 05 NAMED DEVIATION VISIBLE IMPACT NEXT STEP AGE RECEIVES 05 · NEXT STEP

PROACTIVE INTELLIGENCE

The trend calls for attention before crossing the threshold. The chart brings trend, threshold and observed value together through closing. OBSERVED FACT Margin · 31.2% at 14:00

The solid line shows the measured value up to the reading time.

partial period known source confirmed state PROJECTION 29.7% at estimated closing

The dashed line extends the rhythm and signals the possible crossing of the 30% target.

estimate visible limit declared uncertainty

SIMULATION OF THE FIRST DEVIATION

Advance the window and track the change of state. Each point keeps observed value, projection and rule in the same chart. 14:00 16:00 18:00 19:20 OBSERVED PROJECTION THRESHOLD 30% MONITORING 31.2% · monitoring

The observed value remains above target. The projection reaches 30.8%.

OBSERVED 31.2% at 14:00 PROJECTION 30.8% at closing GAP costs after 13:48 still unknown

ALERT ANATOMY

The warning separates fact, projection, gap and probable cause. The four blocks distinguish the measured, estimated, gap and hypothesis. SOLID LINE Fact

Value observed, period and time of reading.

DASHED LINE Projection

Estimated from the recent rhythm.

VISIBLE QUALIFICATION Gap

Late source, conflicting or still absent.

Not confirmed probable cause

Hypothesis accompanied by evidence supporting it.

SEVERITY SCALE

The color follows the rule; the text states the status. Each status states what happened and which response fits that moment. Monitoring RULE observed value within the range READING stable fact RESPONSE continue observing Attention RULE projection approaches the limit READING estimated risk RESPONSE review evidence Deviation RULE observed value crosses the rule READING confirmed fact RESPONSE define the next step Critical RULE deviation grows beyond tolerance READING increased impact RESPONSE refer the decision

EVIDENCE CONSULTED

The alert lists the evidence used in the analysis. Sources represent possible types within the context. Availability depends on configured integrations. Orders volume drop in the period OBSERVED Costs change in freight and fees OBSERVED Campaigns change in spending and conversion CORRELATED Calendar sales event in the same period CONTEXT

ENGINE BOUNDARIES

Controla follows the effect and returns the result. He doesn't execute the change on his own. 01 Conecta

It forms the context with visible origin, access and gaps.

02 Planeja

Compares paths and delivers a route for decision.

03 Age

Transforms the approved route into work and records the result.

04 Controla

Tracks the effect and returns the result to the context.

NEXT CHAPTER

After the alert, every piece of evidence keeps its way to the source.

Open the path of number, from source to transformation, before taking reading to a decision.

Go to Sources and Traceability